The East Coast of the United States, a region renowned for its vibrant coastal communities and rich marine ecosystems, faces increasing challenges from climate change. But Where Is The East Coast exactly, and why is understanding its future so crucial? The East Coast, also known as the Atlantic Coast, encompasses the states bordering the Atlantic Ocean, stretching from Maine in the north down to Florida in the south. This extensive coastline is not only a geographical area but also a vital economic and ecological zone, particularly for fisheries. Recognizing the growing impact of climate change, the Northeast Region Coordinating Council (NRCC) initiated a comprehensive climate change scenario planning initiative to proactively address the future of East Coast fisheries. This article outlines the phased approach of this critical project, designed to ensure the sustainability of this vital region.
Phase 1: Orientation (November 2020 – July 2021)
The journey began in November 2020 when the Northeast Region Coordinating Council (NRCC) officially launched the climate change scenario planning initiative. Early in 2021, a dedicated core team was assembled. This team, working in collaboration with a process facilitator, embarked on the crucial task of developing a structured framework. This framework was designed to guide the entire scenario planning process, ensuring a systematic and effective approach to addressing the complex challenges ahead. The detailed plan for this framework was documented and made accessible, setting the stage for subsequent phases.
Phase 2: Scoping (August – September 2021)
The Scoping phase in August and September 2021 was pivotal for broadening engagement and gathering diverse perspectives. Its primary purpose was to introduce the climate change initiative to a wide array of stakeholders. This involved actively seeking input on the project’s draft objectives to ensure they were comprehensive and relevant. Furthermore, the scoping phase aimed to solicit valuable insights from stakeholders regarding the various factors and issues anticipated to shape the future landscape of East Coast fisheries. To achieve this, a series of three kick-off webinars were organized, providing a platform for information sharing and interactive discussion. Complementing these webinars, an online questionnaire was distributed to capture feedback from an even broader spectrum of stakeholders, ensuring inclusivity and a comprehensive understanding of concerns and priorities.
Phase 3: Exploration (February – March 2022)
Building upon the wealth of input collected during the Scoping phase, the Exploration phase, conducted in February and March 2022, delved deeper into identifying and analyzing the major drivers of change affecting East Coast fisheries. This phase was structured around a series of three webinars, each focusing on a critical dimension of change. The first webinar concentrated on oceanographic drivers, examining shifts in ocean conditions. The second webinar addressed biological drivers, exploring changes in marine ecosystems and species. Finally, the third webinar investigated social and economic drivers, considering the human and economic factors influencing fisheries. The valuable outcomes from these webinars served as essential “building blocks,” providing the foundational knowledge necessary to develop informed and robust draft scenarios in the subsequent phase.
Phase 4: Scenario Creation (June-August 2022)
The Scenario Creation phase, spanning from June to August 2022, was a highly collaborative and imaginative stage. During this phase, participants actively engaged in developing and refining a set of draft scenarios. These scenarios were designed to depict different plausible futures for East Coast fisheries as they navigate the complexities of climate change.
Part 1: Scenario Creation Workshop
A significant event within this phase was the Scenario Creation Workshop held in June 2022. This workshop brought together approximately 70 stakeholders, creating a diverse and engaged group. Their collective efforts were focused on developing an initial set of scenarios, each painting a picture of a distinct possible future for East Coast fisheries extending out to the year 2042.
Part 2: Scenario Deepening
Following the workshop, the Scenario Deepening process in August 2022 aimed to broaden participation and enrich the scenarios. Two Scenario Deepening webinars were organized, providing an open forum for all interested stakeholders. These webinars offered an invaluable opportunity to review the draft scenarios generated during the workshop, validate their assumptions, and contribute further details and nuances. The draft scenarios were then carefully revised, incorporating the feedback and insights received during these deepening webinars, ensuring a more robust and representative set of future possibilities.
Phase 5: Applications (September 2022-February 2023)
The Applications phase, conducted from September 2022 to February 2023, moved from scenario development to practical implications. During this phase, fishery managers took center stage, utilizing the developed scenarios to analyze potential consequences for future fishery governance and management frameworks. The goal was to generate concrete recommendations for adapting existing approaches or establishing new arrangements to effectively address the challenges highlighted by the scenarios.
Part 1: Manager Sessions
To facilitate focused discussion and idea generation, small groups of fishery managers participated in three dedicated “brainstorming sessions” held in September and October 2022. These sessions were structured to encourage managers to explore possible actions and strategies they might consider in response to each specific scenario, fostering proactive and scenario-specific planning.
Part 2: Applications Discussions with Councils/Commission
Expanding the scope of discussion, during November and December 2022, each of the three East Coast Councils and the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission incorporated the scenarios into their respective meetings. These discussions provided a platform for council and commission members to deliberate on the scenarios and collaboratively generate recommendations for practical applications within their management domains.
Part 3: Summit Meeting
Culminating the Applications phase, a summit meeting was convened on February 15-16, 2023. This summit brought together representatives from participating organizations spanning across different regions and jurisdictions. The summit served as a crucial venue to consolidate input gathered from manager sub-group sessions and individual management body discussions. The primary objective was to collaboratively develop a final set of governance, management, and monitoring recommendations stemming from the entire scenario planning process, ensuring a unified and coordinated approach.
Phase 6: Monitoring
The final and ongoing phase is Monitoring. Recognizing that climate change and its impacts are not static, continuous monitoring of key indicators is essential. This monitoring focuses on indicators relevant to the outcomes of the scenario planning process and the potential actions identified. The Potential Action Menu proposes the formation of new groups, such as a Climate Innovation Group, dedicated to evaluating and implementing potential actions. These groups will also play a crucial role in regularly reviewing changes and factors influencing East Coast fishery management. The Climate Innovation Group, for example, is tasked with continuously reviewing ecosystem and socioeconomic data, assessing shifts relative to the developed scenarios, tracking relevant initiatives and tools, and proactively generating new potential actions for consideration by the East Coast Climate Coordination Group. This ongoing monitoring and adaptive management approach is vital for ensuring the long-term resilience and sustainability of East Coast fisheries in the face of a changing climate.
